WASHINGTON -- Rep. Bill Cassidy, R-Baton Rouge, Wednesday became the first announced Republican challenger for Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., in 2014. But there's likely to be others, including his conservative congressional colleague and fellow physician, Rep. John Fleming of Minden. Over the next 19 months, Louisiana will have a courtside seat for what likely will be one of the...
WASHINGTON -- Rep. Bill Cassidy, R-Baton Rouge, Wednesday became the first announced Republican challenger for Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., in 2014. But there's likely to be others, including his conservative congressional colleague and fellow physician, Rep. John Fleming of Minden.
Over the next 19 months, Louisiana will have a courtside seat for what likely will be one of the nation's most contentious Senate races. It's a contest that might determine whether Democrats retain their Senate majority or if President Barack Obama must deal during his final two years in office with a GOP majority.
Christine Day, a political scientist at the University of New Orleans, expects Landrieu to continue to strike a balance between support for party positions and political independence.
"She (Landrieu) has little to lose in bucking the party for the state's conservative constituency since there's no viable candidate running to her left," Day said. "Fleming, as the more socially conservative Republican candidate, may be able to turn out more of the party's conservative base; Cassidy may be a more credible candidate in challenging the Senator for the moderate or centrist vote. Either one will be tough, but not impossible, for her to beat."
Already the jockeying has begun to portray the opposing party's candidates as outside the mainstream of Louisiana values. Fleming hasn't announced his candidacy but has issued daily critiques last weeks of Landrieu's recent budget votes. He describes them as "siding with President Obama and Washington liberals." Cassidy said Landrieu gave the president a "blank check for his wasteful spending."
Landrieu said the Democratic budget she voted for "takes a balanced approach to reduce our deficit by targeting smart spending cuts and finding additional revenues from closing loopholes in our tax code." The alternative House Republican budget, and an even more conservative proposal supported by Cassidy and Fleming, Landrieu said, would shift the "entire burden of deficit reduction on the backs of the middle class and working poor," while "lavishing tax cuts to the top 1 percent."
For her nearly 16 1/2 years in the Senate, Landrieu has managed to hold onto her seat, despite growing Republican and conservative trends in Louisiana, by bringing home federal aid to Louisiana, particularly after Hurricane Katrina, and breaking with her own party on notable issues, such as her support for the oil and gas industry. Last week, she declined to endorse same-sex marriage, putting her among only nine Senate Democrats with that position.
Her Republican opponents have the advantage running in a conservative state with a platform that labels government spending wasteful, and against the health overhaul law and other policies of President Barack Obama, who remains unpopular in the state. But to be successful, especially with Landrieu and Democrats accusing Republicans of taking extreme positions and fostering gridlock on Capitol Hill, a GOP Senate candidate might well want to give an example or two where they differ from their party - such as David Vitter's first run for the Senate in 2004 when he promoted importation of cheaper prescription drugs from Canada. That's an idea Republicans generally opposed at the time.
Brian Brox, a Tulane University political scientist, said Landrieu may be helped by having several GOP opponents in the GOP primary. In addition to Cassidy and possibly Fleming, also considering a run are former Rep. Jeff Landry, R-New Iberia, and Chas Roemer, the son of former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer.
"Even if she's forced into a runoff, the likelihood is that she'll make it into the runoff with a consolidated Democratic vote," Brox said. "Fleming and Cassidy, and (perhaps) Landry, on the other hand, will have to fight amongst themselves for the Republican vote, and that would likely involve trying to out-conservative each other. ...The Republican who makes the runoff would have to defend some extremely conservative stances made when fighting for the Republican base."
Both Landrieu and her GOP opponents have a disadvantage in 2014.
In 2008, Landrieu was helped by a large turnout of Africa-Americans drawn by the chance to vote for the first black president, Barack Obama, though he lost badly in the state.
"She needs to have a sophisticated voter mobilization operation as she won't have the presidential race to energize Democratic voters who often drop out of the electorate in midterm elections," Brox said,.
But on the other hand, Republicans probably won't be able to nationalize the 2014 mid-term election, as they did in 2010, winning a big Republican plurality in the House by running against Obama and his health overhaul bill, while scapegoating Democratic congressional leaders Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.
Cassidy and Fleming will need to overcome a major weakness, lack of name recognition outside of Baton Rouge and Shreveport, their district's population centers, according to Joshua Stockley, a political scientist at the University of Louisiana at Monroe.
"In 2008, Barack Obama garnered 782,000 votes in Louisiana, however, Mary Landrieu garnered 988,000 voters, 200,000 more than Obama," Stockley said. "While Mary Landrieu certainly needs her core constituencies, like African Americans, to turnout, her path to victory lies less with African Americans and more with moderates, independents and surprisingly Republicans. She has been very popular with parish level Republicans -- sheriffs, parish presidents, police jurors - because of her ability to get federal spending for important parish-level projects."
Cassidy said that he plans to spend the next few months introducing himself to voters and pledging to continue to work in Congress promoting economic growth, less government and opposition to tax increases.
And he continues to mention at almost every opportunity his opposition to the Affordable Care Act, which really kicks in next year. Cassidy said it hurt small businesses while failing to make the major reforms needed to make health care more affordable and effective.
In his video announcing his candidacy Wednesday, Cassidy noted that he volunteers to provide medical care for the uninsured.
Landrieu said she isn't running away from the health care law that she helped vote into law, even with Gov. Bobby Jindal refusing to implement a major component, an expansion of Medicaid to provide health coverage for hundreds of thousands of Louisiana's uninsured.
"I'm going to do everything I can to see that people in Louisiana - one of the states that has the highest number of uninsured - one of the highest death rates in America from cancer, one of the highest rates of diabetes - have a chance for a decent health care system," Landrieu said in a recent interview with Politico. "If I have to stand up to the tea party and I have to stand up to Gov. Jindal, there is nothing that scares me about that whatsoever."