Gov. Bobby Jindal's polling numbers might be higher if the Louisiana economy was stronger or, absent that, his communication skills were sharper -- especially when it comes to economic policy, according to a report in Governing Magazine. The study ranked the states in order of the success of their state economies; it then looked at the relationship, if any,...
Gov. Bobby Jindal's polling numbers might be higher if the Louisiana economy was stronger or, absent that, his communication skills were sharper -- especially when it comes to economic policy, according to a report in Governing Magazine.
The study ranked the states in order of the success of their state economies; it then looked at the relationship, if any, between the level of that success and the governor's popularity.
Louisiana's economy placed 40th on the Governing list, a relatively low number considering a recent boom in the state's natural gas sector that some say is leading to the "reindustrialization" of the region.
While the Jindal administration continues to push the narrative of economic growth, the study claims if the state economy was truly booming, Jindal would see higher polling numbers.
The recent dip in his approval rating to between 28 percent and 38 percent, depending on which polling firm you believe, is also due to poor messaging and a willingness to take on a "riskier policy course," the study said.
"Jindal's lagging popularity is based on irritating powerful groups of Louisiana constituents, including teachers, state workers, Democrats and businesses who doubt that his policies are doing them any good," Pearson Cross, a political scientist at the University of Louisiana-Lafayette, told Governing.
A major overhaul of the state's tax code was scrapped by the administration on the first day of the 2013 legislative session after it received heavy opposition from business and industry groups. State workers have been laid off in high numbers and teachers have protested recent cuts to higher education and the expansion of the school voucher program statewide.
"If Louisiana's economy were truly booming, Jindal's popularity be higher," Cross added.
But Jindal's relatively low approval rating -- a McClatchy-Marist poll released in July showed him tied for last place among Republican governors -- isn't a fait accompli due to a lagging state economy. Case in point: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
"Voters are unhappy with Christie's performance on jobs and taxes," Rutgers University political scientist Dave Redlawsk told Governing. But he's a near shoe-in for re-election because voters appreciate "his tell-it-like-it-is style and a feeling that he is 'leading,' whether they like where he is going or not."
Delaware Gov. Jack Markell, a Democrat, is another example of low scoring economic success but high popularity, Governing said. This is due to Markell's strength as a communicator and retail campaigner.
Both New Jersey and Delaware ranked lower than Louisiana on Governing's scale of state economic success, coming it at 42nd and 47th respectively.
The Governing economic ranking was based on five factors: state unemployment and its rate of change over the last year, real state GDP per capita and its change since 2011 and percentage change is real income between 2012 and 2013.
The report yielded five "findings:"
- Voter malaise with a bad economy accentuates a governor's unpopularity.
- Positive economic news can outweigh a governor's other unpopular policy choices.
- Strong communications skills can outweigh negative economic news (and vice versa, weak skills can exacerbate how voters perceive of the state economy).
- If a governor has no real opposition party, he can survive tough economic times more easily.
- And, voters blame national politicians for a weak economy more than those based on a governor's in-state policies.
The full report can be found here.